An Empirical Study of the Association Between Retracted Papers and the Retraction Risk of Citing Publications

Lou Ying; Li Menghui

doi:10.13266/j.issn.2095-5472.2026.033

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Knowledge Management Forum ›› 2026, Vol. 11 ›› Issue (4) : 400-412. DOI: 10.13266/j.issn.2095-5472.2026.033 CSTR: 32306.14.j.issn.2095-5472.2026.033

An Empirical Study of the Association Between Retracted Papers and the Retraction Risk of Citing Publications

Lou Ying ¹^,² ,
Li Menghui ¹^,²

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Abstract

[Purpose/Significance] Retraction is an important self-correction mechanism of the scientific community. However, retraction does not necessarily mean that the affected articles immediately disappear from scientific communication, as they may continue to generate complex citation links. Existing studies have primarily focused on the impacts of retracted papers, while whether citations to retracted papers are statistically associated with the retraction risk of citing papers remains insufficiently investigated. Therefore, this study examines the statistical association between citations to retracted articles and the retraction risk of citing articles from the perspective of citation relationships, providing empirical evidence for retraction risk identification and early warning. [Method/Process] The data were primarily obtained from the Amend retraction database, combined with citing-paper information retrieved from the OpenAlex database. First, the citation characteristics of retracted articles were analyzed in terms of citation breadth, citation depth, and cascade size. Subsequently, an experimental group and a control group were constructed to examine whether papers citing retracted papers had a higher risk of retraction. Furthermore, statistical analysis and machine learning approaches were combined to identify key features associated with this statistical relationship from two dimensions: the intrinsic characteristics of retracted articles and the relational characteristics between retracted and citing articles. [Result/Conclusion] Retracted articles maintain relatively high visibility after retraction and exhibit citation cascade characteristics, including long persistence, deep citation levels, and broad citation scope within citation networks. Comparisons between the experimental and control groups demonstrate a statistical association between citing retracted articles and the retraction risk of citing articles. Further analysis reveals that citing articles of retracted papers involving clinical trials, randomized controlled trials, case studies, and paper mill-related retractions show higher retraction rates. Moreover, the proportion of retracted articles cited by a citing article exhibits a strong statistical association with the retraction rate of citing articles.

Key words

research integrity / retracted papers / citing publications / citation cascades / retraction risk

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Lou Ying , Li Menghui. An Empirical Study of the Association Between Retracted Papers and the Retraction Risk of Citing Publications[J]. Knowledge Management Forum. 2026, 11(4): 400-412 https://doi.org/10.13266/j.issn.2095-5472.2026.033

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